The Great Undervalued

A Moose Track

I'm going to bring a certain NBA point guard into the spotlight for a moment. But instead of just bringing him out and introducing him like normal, I'm gonna turn make it a little more interesting.

This player works the court like a magician. He sees it like a lion sees a plain full of gazelles, and he attacks. He leads his team like he's been doing it for the past ten years, and his squad's success hinges on his performance. If he plays well, it rubs off on his teammates, usually with satisfying results.

You're thinking Tony Parker, right? Wrong.

He is the Most Valuable Player on his team, even though sometimes this title is doubted or unknown. His teammates know it, and they put their full trust in him, letting him run the offense and most of the defense as well. He is a natural leader, instructing his colleagues even though they're probably years older than him.

You're thinking Derrick Rose, right? Wrong.

His crossovers perplex his defenders and teammates alike, sporting killer dribble moves while cutting to the hoop. He is quicker than Usain Bolt on steroids (wink, wink) running from a horse with rabies. He slices to the hole like a hot knife through butter, leaving the opposition wondering if they should have gone into business rather than basketball.

You're thinking Deron Williams, right? Wrong.

This man's defense is off the charts, staying on the ball like Ryan Jones on LeBron James (Man, I hope RJ reads this--Moose). Steals come like his hands are magnets, grabbing the ball from whoever gets in his way quicker than Kobe seems to pick up 35 nightly. Nobody wants to be covered by him.

You're thinking Chris Paul, right? Wrong.

He's got a basketball IQ higher than Josh Howard in the offseason, and he sees plays before they happen, taking full advantage of every opportunity that presents itself. Whether he's faking and then dumping to somebody else, tossing up a perfect alley-oop or flipping a behind-the-back, the passes drop just like the dimes.

You're thinking Steve Nash, right? Wrong.

This player is a legitimate triple double threat every time he steps on the court, having a talent for scoring, assisting and rebounding, despite size differences. He seems to sneak rebounds out of every situation, using quickness and smarts to beat bigger opponents in every category.

You're thinking Jason Kidd, right? Wrong.

Soon, it'll be impossible to ignore. This point guard, too underrated and outshined, deserves his burn. I'm having a hard time thinking that it isn't coming soon.



--Moose

The Great Point Guard Debate

Every position on a basketball court is immensely important. Ideally, there is the center, a big man who can either bang down low with post moves, shoot mid-range jumpers exceptionally well, sink hook shots, grab rebounds, block shots or all of the above. There is the power forward, another low-post threat on offense and defense, again with the ability to clean the glass, and occasionally having the ability to knock down three pointers. There is the small forward, a slasher who is generally the most athletic on the team, with above average scoring ability and great all-around numbers. There is the shooting guard, the three point specialist who looks to take the mid- to long-range shots on the perimeter. Then there is the point guard, the court general, having the best court vision on the team, able to draw opponents and find the open man, picking up numerous assists and, ideally, a good amount of points to complement it.

In the NBA, comparisons to other players who share their position are frequent. Some of them are obvious; LeBron James is the best swingman in the game and Kobe Bryant is the best two guard. But for the other positions, there are many debates. There is the Tim Duncan and Kevin Garnett debate for the best power forward, two top enforcers who are also team leaders. There is the Dwight Howard and Yao Ming debate for centers, a pair of elite big men who rack up the boards, blocked shots and points for their respective contending teams. This leaves us with the debate for the best court leader, the point guard. What has been done on the court has narrowed the candidates for best point guard down to two; the young Deron Williams and Chris Paul.

Deron Michael Williams was born on June 26, 1984 in Parkersburg, West Virginia. Deron was raised by his mother, Denise Smith, with barely any help from his father, Byron Williams, who disappeared altogether from Deron's life in the early '90s. When Williams was young, he and his mother moved to suburban Dallas, where he was raised. Denise was a computer programmer, and was also a star multi-sport athlete in high school and college. She was the one who taught Deron the game and how to play the demanding point guard position. His mother had another child, Kendall, when Williams was ten, and Deron was and still is very close to his little brother and mother.

When Deron was in elementary school, he was an elite wrestler for his age; as an eight year old he won the Texas State Championship in the 67 pound weight class, and he did so again when he was twelve, winning in the 116 pound weight class. Playing ball at a high level through middle school, Deron was recruited by The Colony High School in The Colony, Texas, one of the top high school programs in the country. In his junior year in 2001, he posted averages of 17 points, 9.4 assists and 2 steals per game, en route to the Cougars going 32-2 and visiting the Class 5A State Semifinals.

His senior year he had iced his rep as a superb ball handler and play maker, even though his main feature is the ability to make his teammates look better. Again, he averaged 17 points, along with 8.4 dimes and 6 boards per game. But when the college recruiting came to Texas, his teammate and best friend Bracey Wright was given the load of the attention, while Deron was a McDonald's All-American snub, with point guard Bryan Hopkins in his place in this prestigious competition. Hopkins relied on teammate forward Chris Bosh to score on the assists, and with Bosh's domination, Hopkins was greatly overrated. But Williams was not overlooked, being the star point guard for one of the top hoops high schools in the country. He accepted a scholarship to the University of Illinois, joining fellow freshman guard Dee Brown, a flashy guard who was great in the fast break.

In his freshman year for coach Bill Self, Deron started 30 of 32 games for the Fighting Illini, while ranking third in the Big Ten with 4.5 dimes per game, while averaging a measly 6.3 points per game. That year Illinois bowed out of the NCAA tournament in the second round after going 11-5 and finishing second in the conference.

For his sophomore year, D-Will's scoring ability was realized, upping his former 6.3 to 14 per game, leading his team in this category. He averaged 6.17 dimes per game, and emerged as Illinois' most consistent player. He was selected First Team All-Big 10 by the media and coaches. The fighting Illini surprised in the NCAA tournament, making it through Murray State and Cincinnati before falling to Duke in the Sweet Sixteen. Set to dominate in his junior year, the threesome that was Williams, Dee Brown and forward Luther Head had high expectations. Illinois started to rack up the wins, with Brown grabbing the bulk of the headlines because of his elite scoring ability. Illinois continued to play their exciting team basketball, marching to a 30-1 record, with the loss by one point in the last game of the season to the powerhouse that was Ohio State. They dominated in March Madness action, appearing in the National Championship against North Carolina.

Their road to the Final Four included a scary win against Arizona in the Elite Eight, with the Illini coming back from a 15 point deficit with under five minutes of play left. They lost to a North Carolina team that was full of current NBA players, including Sean May, Marvin Williams, Raymond Felton and Rashad Mccants by five points, 75-70. The loss had a sizeable impact on Deron, but it was a great run in the tournament, and Deron won many awards for his play, including being named a consensus Second Team All American, as well as winning First Team All-Big 10 honors, Big-10 All Tournament Team honors and All Final Four team honors.

Williams entered his name in the 2005 NBA Draft, right after Steve Nash was selected MVP of the league. Because of Nash's success, teams were searching for the next great court leader, and the Utah Jazz recognized Deron Williams as the top choice. He was selected third overall, before Chris Paul came in at fourth, and he was chosen after the so far unproven Andrew Bogut and Marvin Williams. He was signed to a 4 year, $16 million deal, and the Jazz were very confident in their young guard. Utah needed a reliable point, with many great forward-centers (Boozer, Kirilenko, Okur, to name a few) and no guy to lead them on the offensive side.

In the 2005-06 year, Deron's first season, he started the year on the bench, although he did get somewhat significant minutes. They finished at 41-41, with Williams their starting point guard at the end of the season, and the Jazz had improved dramatically on the 26 wins that they had the year before. D-Will finished his rookie year averaging 10.8 points and 4.5 assists, great numbers for a guy who played only 28.8 minutes per game. The ROY honors went to his counterpart, Chris Paul, but Deron still impressed the doubters. He was selected to the All-Rookie First Team

The year after that, in his second season, he was on the radar as a future star point guard, and in his second year in the NBA people were excited to see him get nearer to his endless potential. He broke out in this 06-07 season, averaging 16.2 points, 9.3 assists, 3.3 rebounds and 1 steal per game, with numbers coming very close to his draft mate, Paul. His assist count per game was the most ever by a Jazz player (not including one guy named Stockton). Led by Williams, they surprisingly made it all the way to the Western Conference Finals where they matched up against the very experienced San Antonio Spurs. The vet-powered Spurs took the series, but it was still an incredible year for Deron, putting him on the board as an elite point guard, not just a future elite point guard.

In his third year, the comparisons to Paul came pouring in. Who's a better complete player? Who's better on offense? Who's better on defense? Who's a better passer? Scorer? The fans, sportswriters and players alike weighed in on their opinions, but we have yet to know who is really the superior player. But D-Will played like a true all-star, averaging 18.8 points, 10.5 assists, 3 rebounds and 1 steal per game, all career highs (save the boards). For the 2007-08 mid season All-Star festivities, Williams was snubbed, much to Utah's chagrin, even though he was playing just as outstanding as the guys who took his place, Allen Iverson and Steve Nash. The dynamic guard still made his mark on all-star weekend, winning the NBA Skills Competition over such players as Paul and Dwyane Wade.

At the end of they year Williams got his due, winning All-NBA Second Team Honors. The Jazz made another playoff appearance, but they bowed out with a series loss to the Los Angeles Lakers. In the 2008 Beijing Olympics, he was one of the top guards on the gold-medal winning team and turned out to be the most reliable in this competition.

As a player, Deron can do it all. He is a very big point guard at 6'3", 205 pounds, which allows him to use his body against the smaller guards, posting up on them included. He plays with incredible maturity and confidence, and coach Jerry Sloan in return trusts him greatly, allowing him to take complete control of their offense. He is a smart player, knowing where his teammates are at all times, which allows him to make great passes. He knows how to take it to the hole, and has the ability to either lay it up softly or dunk on you thunderously. A savvy player, he is a great ball handler and is improving his shooting, which is already on par with the rest of the league. Look for D-Will to get snubbed from all star games no longer, and look for 20/10 (11? 12? 13?) stat years to become a habit. Deron Williams is a leader on a legitimate team.

Chris Emmanuel Paul was born on May 6, 1985 in Lewisville, North Carolina. Paul grew up with his parents, Charles and Robin, and his brother, C.J., who is a few years older than him. The members of the Paul family were huge sports fans, highlighted by an insane love of the Dallas Cowboys by Chris's father. Chris's grandfather was Nathaniel Jones, known as "Papa Chilly", and he operated Jones Chevron, the first African-American operated service station in North Carolina. Papa Chilly was a legend in the area, and nobody knew him better than Chris. When Paul was a pre-teen, Jones and Chris worked together on the cars that were brought to them to repair. Chris also had a strong relationship with his older brother, and perhaps it was too strong. For C.J.'s liking, anyway. Chris followed his big brother everywhere, and C.J. and his friends often found Chris to be a pest. He just didn't know when to shut up.

His parents were good at moderating Chris's life, expecting him to pay attention, study, and get good marks in school. Foul language was not allowed in the Paul household, and video games were only to be played on the weekends. Chris was raised in a sports family, and he did play hoops, but football was his best sport, and it got him the most attention. He played quarterback, running back and linebacker, despite being smaller than most everybody else on the field. He was a fast, smart leader, much like he is now on the basketball court. For college hoops, growing up around Wake Forest, rooting for the Demon Deacons was a default, especially with the dominant Tim Duncan entering the school in '93.

Chris started at West Forsyth High School on the JV team, while his older brother was tearing it up on Varsity, the best player on his team. Paul was on Junior Varsity for his first two years of high school; he was about 5'8", and simply couldn't hack it against the taller, stronger players. But in his junior year he had a growth spurt, growing to six feet tall, and with that, his game grew as well. As a senior, Chris Paul averaged 30.8 points, 9.5 assists, 5.9 rebounds and 6 steals per game, outstanding numbers. Those stats were enough to earn 2003 McDonald's All American honors while leading his school to a 27-3 record. Paul was recruited by every ACC hoops program, but he was set on the college that he had been rooting for his whole life, Wake Forest.

He signed a letter of intent in 2002, and within a day of him doing this, Papa Chilly was robbed and murdered by a group of teenagers, and Paul's life was flipped upside down. He was in a daze. About 2,000 people went to his funeral, and Paul decided how he would honor his grandfather's memory. He was set on scoring 61 points, one for each year of his grandfather's life, in his next game. Paul scored the 61 points, intentionally missed a free throw and was taken out of the game, going to his father who hugged him while Chris sobbed.

The Deamon Deacons' basketball program was in a state of rebuilding, and coach Skip Prosser found Paul to be his best asset. With the great back court duo of Chris and Justin Gray, a player with great range from long, Wake Forest didn't look half bad. Chris won ACC Rookie of the Year honors, averaging 14.8 points and 5.9 assists, while leading Wake Forest in assists, steals, three point percentage, free throws made, free throw attempts and free throw percentage. He also won All-ACC Defensive honors, while many were calling him the best frosh in his class, including College Insider, Basketball News, Basketball Times and Dick Vitale.

Chris Paul came back to the Demon Deacons in his sophomore year, and the hype and expectations were sky-high for the young point guard. Wake Forest came out strong before the tournaments started, winning 12 of their first 13. Paul was voted a pre-season All American, but once the regular season came to call, Chris seemed to be feeling a little too much pressure. In their first regular season game, Paul punched NC State's Julius Hodge in the crotch, resulting in a suspension for the first game of the ACC playoffs. In the end, he took responsibility for this action, and he acknowledged that they made the right choice in suspending him. The loss of CP had left a big impact on the Demon Deacons, and they were upset by Florida State.

In the NCAA Tournament, they beat Tennesse-Chatanooga with any problems, but after that they were to match up against a hot West Virginia team in the second round of the tourney. They fell to the Mountaineers 111-105, despite a 22 point, 9 assist showing from Paul. That ended their season at 27-6. Paul decided to enter the 2005 NBA Draft, realizing that he didn't have much else to prove at the college level. The teams that were showing the most interest in Chris was the Hornets, the Hawks and the Bobcats. The Bucks selected big man Andrew Bogut with the first overall pick, and the Hawks selected Marvin Williams with the second pick. This left the Utah Jazz to select either Deron Williams or Chris Paul. The Jazz went with size, maturity and experience, selecting Williams, leaving Chris open to the Hornets, who gladly took him fourth.

The New Orleans Hornets were coming off of a horrendous 18 win season, and hurricane Katrina, a true natural disaster that left a big impact on our country. The hurricane forced The Hornets to play all but three games in Oklahoma City, as opposed to their regular arena in the Bayou. Paul dominated the rest of the rookies in his first year (05-06) leading all the rooks in points, assists, steals and minutes and was the obvious pick for Rookie of the Year, and with that came an All-Rookie Team selection. He averaged 16.1 points and 7.8 dimes per game, leading the Hornets to a season that doubled the year before's win total, winning 38 games. If it were not for a Jazz broadcaster's vote going to Deron Williams, it would have been a unanimous ROY selection. After that season, CP won the ESPY award for Best Breakthrough Athlete. Paul was ready to come back the next year to show the world that he can improve on this incredible rookie season.

Paul's soph season was injury-riddled, with him appearing in only 64 games, sitting for 18. The Hornets still improved (barely) on the year before, winning 39 games, with help from newly acquired sharpshooter Peja Stojakovic and beast in the paint Tyson Chandler. Paul still improved, averaging 17.3 points, 8.9 assists, 4.4 rebounds and 1.8 steals per game. Again, the Hornets missed the playoffs, but had Paul been there the whole time, they might have managed an eight seed.

The 2007-08 season was one of hope for the Hornets and the whole city of New Orleans. Coming back to NO for a whole season was a relief for the team and city, and with their great 22 year old point guard, things were looking up for them. They flirted with having the best record in the league last year, finishing with a 56-26 record, the best in team history, and they earned a number two seed in the Western Conference Playoffs.

They hosted the All-Star game on their home court, with Chris and forward David West representing the Hornets. Paul had a monster (MONSTER) year, averaging 21.1 points, 11.6 assists, 4 rebounds and 2.7 steals per game. He led the league in assists and steals, and he finished second in MVP voting behind the dominant Kobe Bryant and ahead of LeBron James. He was also selected All-NBA First Team, three votes shy of unanimous. For the playoffs, they defeated the Mavericks in the first round, but ultimately fell to the more experienced Spurs in seven games afterwards in the semis. That summer, he was also a member of the gold medal-winning 2008 Beijing Olympics USA hoops team.

As a player, Paul has the best vision in the NBA. He sees the entire court, has great instincts and always knows what to do. It is nearly impossible to defend him, if you play him close he'll break out his hesitation dribble that looks like a bounce pass for a second, leaving you standing there, looking for the ball, and he drives right by you. If you play him loose, he can either lob it up for an alley-oop to Tyson Chandler (which happens many times a season), pass it to a teammate or shoot the jumper. He is very unselfish, and his assist-to-turnover ratio is among the best in the league. He isn't very big at all, standing at 6'0", 175 pounds, but he still dominates all opponenents. And he plays some of the best defense in the league. What more can you ask for?

 

These two young point guards will be forever linked in the National Basketball Association. Picked third and fourth and roughly the same age, the two best court generals in the league will be compared forever. Now it's time for me to make my pick on the better of the two.

• Body: Paul is only 6 feet tall, 175 pounds. His body gives him a quickness advantage, and when driving to the hoop fouls are called often. But his small body will catch up to him in the long run, when he isn't as quick. Deron is three inches taller and thirty pounds heavier than CP, and D-Will is still one of the quickest players in the league. Williams is stronger, and is more powerful driving to the hole with his size advantage for a guard His size will also help out in the end. Edge: Deron Williams

• Scoring: This one is very close. Paul averaged 2.2 points more than Williams per 40 minutes, but Deron's efficiency is unmatched. CP scored on .488 percent of his shots, whereas Williams shot .507. Deron's True Shooting Percentage (FG% with FT% and 3PT% mixed in) is 59.5, to Paul's 57.6. Williams is also a much better three point shooter than Paul, with a .395 average, thirty percentage points higher than CP's .365. But Paul is better at the line, shooting .851 to Deron's .803. But Williams gets to the charity stripe more often than Paul. If Deron were on a team that had more possessions (like Paul's Hornets) then he would have more points per game. Edge: Draw
  

• Passing: This is another close call. They both registered assists on just over 35% of their teams possessions, and Chris Paul averaged one assist more than D-Will because his team had more possessions. But, a good reason that the Hornets had more possessions was because Paul averaged a league-leading 2.7 steals per game. It's very close. Edge: Chris Paul

• Possession: On offense, Paul turned it over only 7.8% of the time his team went down the floor, one of the lowest percentages among players at his position, where Deron turned it over 11.4% of the time. Still a great percentage, but Paul gets the spot here. On defense, Chris was selected to the All-NBA Defensive Team, led the league in steals and averaged a rebound more than Deron. Edge: Chris Paul

• Team Leadership: Deron definitely ressurrected the Jazz after some terrible seasons, but Paul is the pick here. Coming out and playing great right off the bat, he uplifted a city from a disaster and brought more attention to New Orleans. His team is also my title favorite. Edge: Chris Paul

• Matchups: Deron Williams is the clear winner here. Since college, D-Will's team has beat Chris Paul's 7 out of 8 times. Some of them blowouts. Edge: Deron Williams

And, through all of this rivalry, it's almost impossible that the two could be friends. Right? Wrong. The two text eachother regularly, they hang out, and they don't talk about hoops. "They can't be that close without some kind of tension." Says Hornets coach Byron Scott, "But when I talk to Chris about it, he says it's not there. I told him, 'I know he's your boy, but he could also be seeing what we're doing. He could be a spy.' CP promised me that they don't talk about basketball." They also know the other's game better than everyone. "People say he's not quick enough or athletic." Says Paul of Williams, "Man, D-Will will dunk on you in a heartbeat." Deron also says of Paul's hesitation dribble, "The tendency is to stand up and relax, then he goes by you. He actually likes you to back off. Then he can throw that lob to the rim for Tyson. It's really pick-your-poison." Paul feels equally lost when he matches up against his buddy, "I try to crowd him and live with jump shots. He's going to score, but when he gets everyone else involved, you can put your head between your legs and kiss your butt goodbye."

These two young point guards will be forever linked, and unless Brandon Jennings and Ricky Rubio have anything to say about it, they will be the best point guards in the league for a very long time. In order to be seriously considered two of the best ever, rings are involved. But this is an intriguing storyline for the next ten years or so. Who's better?

2008-09 Season Prediction

Yes, I know a few games have already been played in the season, but a season prediction is necessary. Here's how I (Moose) think the season will roll.



EASTERN CONFERENCE

Atlantic Divison:
1. Boston Celtics: The defending champs get back their core of all-stars in Allen, Pierce and Garnett, and they retain most of their stellar bench. The only great losses were James Posey and P.J. Brown; the Celtics left at the top and are looking to stay there. Number 1 seed in the Eastern Conference Playoffs.

2. Philadelphia 76ers: After having a great offseason, picking up star forward Elton Brand, Philly is looking to take their young guns (Louis Williams, Thaddeus Young), their key returning leaders (Andre Iguodala, Andre Miller), and (a mixture of young and experienced) bench players to surprise in the East. Number 3 seed in the Eastern Conference Playoffs.

3. Toronto Raptors: After picking up PF-C Jermaine O'Neal in this offseason to fortify the inside, O'Neal must stay healthy and consistent in order for Toronto to be taken seriously, and PG Jose Calderon must deliver. But they have a good core in Bosh, O'Neal and Calderon. Number 6 seed in the Eastern Conference Playoffs.

4. New Jersey Nets: With a budding young point guard in Devin Harris, New Jersey doesn't have one current all-star on their team, but they do have a past all-star in swingman Vince Carter. With young big guys like Yi Jianlian, Sean Williams and Brook Lopez, young little guys like Harris and Chris Douglas-Roberts and just a young team in general, NJ isn't looking incredibly bad for the future. But don't expect them to make much noise this year.

5. New York Knicks: After controversially (well, among their fans it was contreversial) selecting 19 year old Italian Danilo Gallinari in the draft, the Knicks were booed for the pick. They've been booed a lot in the past few years; and don't look for the fans to be any happier this season either. Their best players are at the guard position, with Chris Duhon, Jamal Crawford, Nate Robinson and Stephon Marbury, while they have two decent big men in David Lee and Z-Bo. The Knicks aren't looking as terrible as the other years, but they still aren't going anywhere.


Southeast Division:
1. Orlando Magic: Orlando has their core intact; Dwight Howard, Hedo Turkoglu and Rashard Lewis, and the struggling Southeast division shouldn't be too difficult for the Magic to take. Somewhat deep on the bench, Orlando's center, swingman and power forward are top-notch in the NBA, and they have decent guards with Jameer Nelson and Mickael Pietrus. Number 5 seed in the Eastern Conference Playoffs.

2. Atlanta Hawks: The Hawks surprised everybody last year at how close they came to taking down the eventual champs in the first round of the playoffs, pushing them to seven games. And with most of the younger guys back (Josh Smith, Al Horford, Marvin Williams) and the veterans back (Joe Johnson, Mike Bibby) the Hawks are in a good position to take the second place spot in this division from the oft-injured Wizards. Number 7 seed in the Eastern Conference Playoffs.

3. Washington Wizards: Health is a great problem that Washington hasn't even been able to overcome before the season starts, with Agent Zero out until December and center Brendan Haywood out 4-6 months and possibly the whole season. If their core of Butler, Arenas and Jamison is together, they can be deadly, but that seldom happens. Number 8 seed in the Eastern Conference Playoffs.

4. Charlotte Bobcats: The Betcats still aren't in a good position to win games, but with a solid swingman (Gerald Wallace), a solid F-C (Emeka Okafor) and a solid two guard (Jason Richardson), Charlotte looks like it has a decent starting five. But the starters can't do everything, a very weak, young bench isn't giving anybody any belief that MJ's team will win games. They have a good rookie point guard in D.J. Augustin, but coach Larry Brown isn't very fond of rookies, so the chances of him playing much are very slim.

5. Miami Heat: After selecting scoring machine Michael Beasley second overall in the draft, the Heat added another legitimate scoring threat to the starting five. Beasley will complement a healthy Dwyane Wade who showed that he can get the job done again in the Olympics, and swingman Shawn Marion. But even with this good core of scoring starters, Miami is missing players at two very important positions; they barely have a point guard or center, which is the reason why Miami will miss the playoffs and be last in the division.

Central Division:

1. Cleveland Cavaliers: The Cavs have a scary amount of potential this year. Perennial MVP candidate LeBron James gives them a chance to win every time they step onto the court, with almost guaranteed great all-around numbers. And with good shooting around him (Delonte West, Daniel Gibson, Mo Williams, Wally Szczerbiak, sometimes Zydrunas Ilgauskas), good defense around him (himself, Williams, Ilgauskas, Ben Wallace) and great all-around playing, the Cavs will be great this year if everything goes according to plan. Number 2 seed in the Eastern Conference Playoffs.

2. Detroit Pistons: The Pistons are usually predicted at number two or number one in the East most years. This year is an exception. With great teams on the rise (Cleveland, Philly, Orlando) and Detroit on the slight decline, they will have to forfeit their number two seed this season. Still a great team with their used-to-be-all-stars core (Sheed, Billups, Tayshaun, Rip), these guys are aging, all of them 30 or older, barring Prince, who is 28. Their hard-working young bench shines (Maxiell, Stuckey, Afflalo), while their older, slower bench (Mcdyess, Walter Hermann) might keep their older starters in there for longer. It's hard to see these older Pistons having more speed or desire than the other younger teams in the East. Number 4 seed in the Eastern Conference Playoffs.

3. Chicago Bulls: After selecting Derrick Rose number one overall in the 2008 draft, the Bulls will start him straight away, and expectations are high for this strong young court general. He will start right off the bat; along with Joakim Noah, Drew Gooden, Luol Deng and Larry Hughes. They have a great sixth man in two guard Ben Gordon, a great scorer and shooter. But, the Bulls don't belong among the elite in the East, so don't expect them in the Postseason.

4. Milwaukee Bucks: The key moves that the Bucks made this offseason included trading for scoring swingman Richard Jefferson to complement the other scoring threat on this team, Michael Redd, and drafting SF Joe Alexander. It's a young team (Ramon Sessions, Andrew Bogut, Charlie Villanueva, Joe Alexander, (kind of) Richard Jefferson, (kind of) Michael Redd) but there is a good deal of talent. The Bucks look like they might make a little noise in years to come, but I highly doubt that this is a playoffs year for Milwaukee.

5. Indiana Pacers: They made a few trades on draft day, and after losing their marquee player, Jermaine O'Neal, to free agency, the team leader position has shifted and is now resting on the shoulders of small forward Danny Granger, a good scorer with excellent all-around numbers. They acquired speeding point guard T.J. Ford, who's coming off an injury, and also acquired another solid PG, Jarrett Jack, from the Blazers. The new acquisitions look all right, but the Pacers still won't make much of an impact at all.


WESTERN CONFERENCE

Southwest Division:
1. New Orleans Hornets: The Hornets had a great offseason, acquiring championship machine sixth man James Posey. Posey will be a key player in the Hornets' run at a Finals this year, but the swingman will be a small piece of the puzzle compared to point guard Chris Paul. Coming off of his third year, finishing second in MVP voting, Paul is top-notch in steals, assists, points and defense. The dude is arguably the best point guard in the league (I think THE best, D-Will ain't as good as him. In MY POV, again.). They also have borderline all-stars in David West and Tyson Chandler, and great shooters in Morris Peterson and Peja Stojakovic. And their bench is excellent. What more could you ask for? Number 2 seed in the Western Conference Playoffs.

2. Houston Rockets: Health is the key for the gifted Houston Rockets, plagued by injury constantly in many other seasons. Yao Ming and Tracy Mcgrady, two superstars in the league, need to stay off the IR list in order for Houston to live up to expectations. They acquired defensive stalwart Ron Artest, an action that put the Rockets on the board for title consideration, and they are primed to make a great run in the playoffs if they can keep their health and Artest can keep his head. Number 3 seed in the Eastern Conference Playoffs.

3. San Antonio Spurs: Yes, they are a bit on the older side (Kurt Thomas, Fabricio Oberto, Michael Finley, Bruce Bowen, Tim Duncan), all of these players being 32 years old or older, but the Spurs are still top-tier in the NBA. Duncan is arguably the best power forward in the league, while Parker is a stellar point guard, and Ginobili is an annual candidate for the Sixth Man Award. They tried to get younger over the offseason, but ultimately failed, still stuck with a bunch of older starters and bench guys. But age won't stop the Spurs, even in the hellacious Western Conference. Number 4 seed in the Western Conference Playoffs.

4. Dallas Mavericks: Dallas still has their core of all-stars and borderline all-stars, with Dirk Nowitzki, Josh Howard, Jason Kidd and Jason Terry. Their bench has a good amount of young talent, barring Stackhouse, but the starters are a bit run down, all of them 30 or above, save 28 year old Josh Howard. Dallas still looks solid, but not exactly top-notch in the league. Number 8 seed in the Western Conference Playoffs.

5. Memphis Grizzlies: The Grizz were tied for the third worst record in the league last year with 22 wins, and I don't really see them improving on that this year. There is an insane amount of talent on the young Grizzlies, with O.J. Mayo, Rudy Gay, Hakim Warrick, Marc Gasol (well, not that talented . . . but effective nonetheless), Darrell Arthur and Mike Conley, none of them older than 23 barring Hakim Warrick's 26, and these guys are improving. But truthfully, they really won't do squat this year.

Northwest Division:
1. Portland Trailblazers: The biggest question this year for the Blazers is massive seven-footer Greg Oden. A "veteran rookie", if you will, Oden is coming off of microfracture surgery on his knee, keeping him from playing in the 2007-08 season. But if he can live up to his hype, then the Blazers are in excellent shape. With a stellar starting five of Oden, Steve Blake, Brandon Roy, Travis Outlaw and Lamarcus Aldridge, the Blazers also boast a great bench (Sergio Rodriguez, Rudy Fernandez, Nicolas Batum, Joel Prizbilla, Channing Frye, Ike Diogu, Jerryd Bayless). The team of the future with most everybody under 26 years old, the Blazers even look good enough to keep up with the big guns in the West this year. Number 6 seed in the Western Conference Playoffs.

2. Utah Jazz: Utah is a rare team in the NBA for one reason: They have an incredibly talented, young, proven, developed point guard with poise on their squad, and they are one of two teams that boast such a weapon, along with New Orleans. To complement Deron Williams, they also have a solid center in Mehmet Okur, an above average power forward in Carlos Boozer, and a solid bench as well (Andrei Kirilenko, Paul Millsap, Kyle Korver, Brevin Knight, Matt Harpring). Number 7 seed in the Western Conference Playoffs.

3. Denver Nuggets: The Nuggets still own a pair of probable scoring leaders in Carmelo Anthony and Allen Iverson, two stellar players. They also have a few average big men with Kenyon Martin, Chris Andersen and Nene. But they problem with Enver is that they have no "D". There is a lot of interest on the offensive side of the floor, but when the other team gets the ball, they don't hustle down, and barely play any defense at all. George Karl has been trying to stress it, but it ain't working, and without the D I don't see the Nugs making the playoffs this year.

4. Minnesota Timberwolves: Minny is one of those "teams of the future", stacked with talented and potential-laden young players. The Wolves are in the process of rebuilding, and they're doing a great job. With two great athletic big men, Al Jefferson and Kevin Love, a great shooting, scoring swingman in Mike Miller, two quick guards in Sebastian Telfair and Randy Foye, and a few reliable forwards in Ryan Gomes and Corey Brewer, the T-Wolves look great on paper. But, they just aren't ready for the competition in the West (or the East, for that matter). Again, they're still rebuilding.

5. Oklahoma City Thunder: The Oklahoma City Thunder. New city, new look, new name. But, frankly, probably no new results for the team formerly known as the Sonics. Kevin Durant, a 20 year old forward, is the marquee player, a great scorer whose strength and all-around playing is improving. Last year, the then-Sonics had their worst season ever, winning 20 games while losing a whopping 62. They have great young talent in a few places (Durant, Jeff Green, Russell Westbrook, D.J. White), but it isn't gonna do them any good this season. OKC will most likely remain cellar-dwellers this year.

Pacific Division:
1. Los Angeles Lakers: Listed by many as the pre-season pick to win it all, the Lakers lack many holes in their lineup. All in all, a great deal of the season rests on the young shoulders of Andrew Bynum, a 7'1" 21 year old giant who's coming off of a season-ending injury that ultimately led to arthroscopic surgery on his kneecap. If Bynum can bounce back well and live up to his potential, the Lakers look to be nearly unstoppable. Their starters, if healthy, are among the best in the league, if not the best, with Derek Fisher, Kobe Bryant, Vladimir Radmanovic, Bynum and Pau Gasol. And their bench is also particularly outstanding (Lamar Odom, Trever Ariza, Sasha Vujacic, Jordan Farmar, Luke Walton). Number 1 seed in the Western Conference Playoffs.

2. Phoenix Suns: The Suns are another team among the powerhouse that is the Western Conference that has future, current and former all-stars. A stellar frontcourt with Shaquille O'Neal and Amare Stoudemire, a stellar backcourt in Steve Nash and Raja Bell, and pretty good bench (Leandro Barbosa, Grant Hill, Boris Diaw, Robin Lopez, Alando Tucker) puts the Suns in it's place, close to top in the league. Tattooed swingman Matt Barnes gets the starting nod for the older Suns, something he hasn't gotten yet in his career, so he is a player to watch. STAT is looking to explode this year (yes, even more than he already has), the youngest starter at 25 years old for Phoenix. Age is a problem for the Suns; four starters are 32 years or older. But they are definitely going to compete in the West. Number 5 seed in the Western Conference Playoffs.

3. Los Angeles Clippers: The Clip Show had a great offseason, signing all star point guard Baron Davis, formerly of the Golden State Warriors. They also traded for defensive stalwart Marcus Camby from the now and then D-less Enver, a big man who averaged 3.6 blocks per game last year. They also had a good draft, selecting two guard Eric Gordon from Indiana and forward DeAndre Jordan from Texas A&M. They have a great frontcourt with Camby and Chris Kaman, an improving soph swingman in Al Thornton, a solid veteran shooting guard in Cuttino Mobley, and a pretty good bench (Tim Thomas, Ricky Davis, Eric Gordon, DeAndre Jordan, Jason Hart). The Clippers don't look as terrible as other years, but they still won't compete that well in the Western Conference.

4. Golden State Warriors: The Warriors lost their marquee player to the above mentioned Clippers, but they acquired an important player from LA as they took one from Golden State, signing G-F Corey Maggette. Maggette averaged over 22 points and 5 rebounds last year, an addition that evens out the scoring that they lost when Baron Davis signed with the Clippers. This offseason they also signed energyman forward Ronny Turiaf, with him leaving the powerhouse that is the Lakers. But the Warriors have a gaping whole at point guard due to the Monta Ellis moped incident, putting those duties on the shoulders of the young Marcus Williams. Is he up to the job?

5. Sacramento Kings: The leader of this team, shooting guard Kevin Martin, is one of the most under-the-radar stars in the NBA because he plays on a subpar team. With three real scoring threats in Martin, Brad Miller and John Salmons, the Kings are primed to struggle this year in the great Western Conference; their weak lineup isn't set to compete very well against the rest of the league. But Martin is a player to watch here, his numbers have increased every year. The Kings won't make much noise at all, but Kevin Martin just might.


PLAYOFFS

Eastern Conference:
First Round: Celitcs over Wizards (5 games), Cavaliers over Hawks (5 games), Sixers over Raptors (7 games), Pistons over Magic (7 games)

Second Round: Celtics over Pistons (6 games), Cavaliers over Sixers (6 games)

Eastern Conference Finals: Cavaliers over Celtics (7 games)

Western Conference:
First Round: Lakers over Mavericks (4 games), Hornets over Jazz (4 games), Rockets over Trailblazers (5 games), Spurs over Suns (7 games)

Second Round: Lakers over Spurs (6 games), Hornets over Rockets (6 games)

Western Conference Finals: Hornets over Lakers (7 games)

NBA FINALS:

Hornets over Cavaliers in 7 games. Chris Paul and his supporting all-stars will give him the right tools to lead, giving them a victory over the LeBron-powered Cavaliers. Posey will step up, delivering at the right time, like he always does, and Paul will cap off a great season with a Larry O'Brien Trophy.


Awards:

MVP: LeBron James
This year, Bron will finally get the credit that he deserves with an MVP award. Kobe won it last year, but Bron is improving and only 23 years old, so James will show his incredible talent and ability to it's full this year, leading the Cavs to the Finals.

Rookie of the Year: Michael Beasley
Beasley will have a great opportunity to show his raw talent and scoring ability in Miami because he will start right off the bat, getting a better chance to prove himself than his fellow class of '08 players.

Defensive Player of the Year: Kevin Garnett
KG will keep up his defensive dominance on the best defensive team in the league this year, even though it will be close between him and new Rocket Ron Artest.

Sixth Man Award: Lamar Odom
Usually a starter on a great team, Odom has to settle on being a bench player on an outstanding team, and with his great ability (I hate to say this) Odom is the best man off the bench in the league.

Most Improved Player: Andrew Bynum
If Bynum lives up to his limitless potential, which I predict he will, he will truly deserve this award after his disastrous injury and subpar first year.

Coach of the Year: Nate McMillan
Portland will be increasingly better than other years in 08-09, giving him a chance to mentor the younger players, and if everything goes according to plan, this will be well deserved.

Executive of the Year: Kevin Pritchard
The 41 year old GM of the Blazers kept the young core of the team together while saving a lot of cap space for a potentially big signing next summer. A good showing in the West wouldn't hurt this bid either.

So, there you go. I got some big predictions here, and it should be a great season.


-- Moose